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Modeling and analysis of vessel casualties resulting from tanker traffic through narrow waterways
Author(s) -
Tan Bariş,
Otay Emre N.
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
naval research logistics (nrl)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.665
H-Index - 68
eISSN - 1520-6750
pISSN - 0894-069X
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1520-6750(199912)46:8<871::aid-nav1>3.0.co;2-i
Subject(s) - markov chain , channel (broadcasting) , boundary (topology) , marine engineering , probability distribution , arrival time , markov process , stochastic modelling , computer science , operations research , statistics , engineering , mathematics , transport engineering , telecommunications , mathematical analysis
In this paper, we present a physics‐based stochastic model to investigate vessel casualties resulting from tanker traffic through a narrow waterway. A state‐space model is developed to represent the waterway and the location of vessels at a given time. We first determine the distribution of surface current at a given location of the waterway depending on channel geometry, bottom topography, boundary conditions, and the distribution of wind. Then we determine the distribution of the angular drift for a given vessel travelling at a given location of a waterway. Finally, we incorporate the drift probabilities and random arrival of vessels into a Markov chain model. By analyzing the time‐dependent and the steady‐state probabilities of the Markov chain, we obtain risk measures such as the probability of casualty at a given location and also the expected number of casualties for a given number of vessels arriving per unit time. Analysis of the Markovian model also yields an analytical result that shows that the expected number of casualties is proportional to square of the tanker arrival rate. We present our methodology on an experimental model of a hypothetical narrow waterway. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Reseach Logistics 46: 871–892, 1999