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The practice of system dynamics: milestones, lessons and ideas from 30 years experience
Author(s) -
Coyle Geoff
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
system dynamics review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.491
H-Index - 57
eISSN - 1099-1727
pISSN - 0883-7066
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-1727(199824)14:4<343::aid-sdr156>3.0.co;2-d
Subject(s) - honour , system dynamics , dynamics (music) , computer science , operations research , management science , diagram , sociology , engineering , law , artificial intelligence , political science , pedagogy , database
The paper was written to respond to the honour of the conferment of the first Lifetime Achievement Award of the System Dynamics Society. A brief review of some of the author's early experiences suggests that it is valuable to have done other things as well as system dynamics. An approach to system dynamics modelling based on influence diagrams is described, leading to the concept of the cone of diagrams. That is illustrated by two views of a mining company. The use of performance indices to measure policy outcomes is illustrated for the mining company, showing how competing actors can both achieve their objectives. Further influence diagrams are developed for defence problems, the millennium ‘time bomb’ in a utility company and for the catastrophe of Angola. In each case, the diagram produces policy insights without the necessity of simulation. There is a discussion of the possible limits to quantification in system dynamics. The role of optimisation in system dynamics is examined and illustrated by two cases. The links between system dynamics and other methodologies for the study of the future are considered and exemplified. Finally, the author offers some thoughts on the future of system dynamics. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.