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Threats to sustainability: simulating conflict within and between nations
Author(s) -
Wils Annababette,
Kamiya Matilde,
Choucri Nazli
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
system dynamics review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.491
H-Index - 57
eISSN - 1099-1727
pISSN - 0883-7066
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-1727(199822/23)14:2/3<129::aid-sdr146>3.0.co;2-6
Subject(s) - sustainability , international conflict , sustainable development , population , affect (linguistics) , armed conflict , political science , development economics , conflict theories , economics , conflict resolution , sociology , law , ecology , biology , demography , communication , politics
Violent conflict is increasingly viewed as a factor related to sustainable development. This article argues, based on the well‐established theory of lateral pressure originally proposed by Choucri and North in 1975, that the relationship arises because the same factors that affect sustainable development also influence conflict, namely population, technology, resources, military force, and trade and bargaining, while conflict, in turn, affects these variables. The theory is tested with a system dynamics model that includes international as well as domestic violent conflict, calibrated to seven countries in southern Africa and six OECD countries. The results show a number of situations in which conflict is perpetuated in a cycle that is difficult to break. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.