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Accurate estimation of performance measures for system dynamics models
Author(s) -
Barton P. M.,
Tobias A. M.
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
system dynamics review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.491
H-Index - 57
eISSN - 1099-1727
pISSN - 0883-7066
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-1727(199821)14:1<85::aid-sdr136>3.0.co;2-b
Subject(s) - extrapolation , computation , estimation , computer science , richardson extrapolation , variety (cybernetics) , system dynamics , estimation theory , statistics , algorithm , mathematics , artificial intelligence , engineering , systems engineering
Traditional system dynamics models are subject to error in the estimation of performance measures because of the method of calculation over discrete time intervals. It is shown that such errors may be significantly reduced by dividing the computation between two runs with different solution intervals and applying Richardson's extrapolation method. Examples are given for a variety of different published models and performance measures. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.