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Utility analysis for the probationary selection decision to obtain a fixed quota of successful selectees
Author(s) -
DE CORTE WILFRIED
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
journal of organizational behavior
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.938
H-Index - 177
eISSN - 1099-1379
pISSN - 0894-3796
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-1379(199701)18:1<67::aid-job773>3.0.co;2-b
Subject(s) - selection (genetic algorithm) , extension (predicate logic) , relevance (law) , value (mathematics) , workforce , operations management , operations research , actuarial science , economics , statistics , computer science , mathematics , political science , artificial intelligence , programming language , economic growth , law
Abstract This article presents the extension of the one‐cohort probationary selection (OCPS) framework (De Corte, 1994) to a multiple cohort model and shows how the extension can be applied to estimate the utility of probationary selection with replacement (PSWR) when a fixed quota of successfully performing selectees is required. Next, formulas to compute the net present value of the OCPS and the PSWR approach to the selection of a fixed quota of successful employees are derived. The equations indicate that the latter approach will usually lead to a higher utility, but not necessarily to a higher net present value of the predictor selected workforce. This finding, which is corroborated by the results of an example application, is of immediate practical relevance because it justifies the probationary selection with replacement practice that is adopted in many West European countries. Finally, the example results suggest also that the traditional Brogden–Cronbach–Gleser framework generally overestimates the incremental utility of using a predictor when the objective is to select a fixed quota of successful selectees. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.