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Order forecasts, retail sales, and the marketing mix for consumer durables
Author(s) -
Hanssens Dominique M.
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-131x(199806/07)17:3/4<327::aid-for699>3.0.co;2-q
Subject(s) - order (exchange) , marketing mix , retail sales , marketing , marketing mix modeling , business , economics , return on marketing investment , marketing effectiveness , finance
The paper examines the problem of forecasting ongoing factory orders and monitoring retail demand, with specific reference to high‐technology consumer durables. We present evidence of the managerial importance of the problem and, using a case study of a computer peripheral manufacturer, we describe how different data sources and models can be used to increase prediction accuracy. First we examine the order placement and retail demand process using extrapolative methods that focus on identifying short‐ versus long‐run movements in orders. We then introduce marketing‐mix data for improved retail demand tracking and forecasting, and we propose the use of conjoint measurement data to simulate a product's utility over time and include that information in the demand model. Lastly, we describe the forecasting and marketing planning use of these models and discuss their implications. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.