Forecasting with preliminary data

This paper examines several methods to forecast revised US trade balance figures by incorporating preliminary data. Two benchmark forecasts are considered: one ignoring the preliminary data and the other applying a combination approach; with the second outperforming the first. Competing models include a bivariate AR error‐correction model and a bivariate AR error‐correction model with GARCH effects. The forecasts from the latter model outperforms the combination benchmark for the one‐step forecast case only. A restricted AR error‐correction model with GARCH effects is discovered to provide the best forecasts. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.