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Organizational Pressures on Forecast Evaluation: Managerial, Political, and Procedural Influences
Author(s) -
JONES VER DALE,
BRETSCHNEIDER STUART,
GORR WILPEN L.
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-131x(199707)16:4<241::aid-for658>3.0.co;2-p
Subject(s) - institutionalisation , generalization , politics , sample (material) , affect (linguistics) , scale (ratio) , economics , econometrics , psychology , political science , mathematics , mathematical analysis , chemistry , physics , psychiatry , law , communication , chromatography , quantum mechanics
This paper proposes a theory to explain why some forecasting organizations institutionalize forecast accuracy evaluation while others do not. The theory considers internal and external aspects of managerial, political, and procedural factors as they affect forecasting organizations. The theory is then tested using data from a survey of the US Federal Forecasters Group. Though some support for the theory is developed, multiple alternative explanations for results and the ‘public’ nature of the sample organizations prevent wide‐scale generalization. The results suggest that larger organizations are more likely to have some form of forecast evaluation than smaller units. The institutionalization of forecast accuracy evaluation is closely linked to internal managerial and procedural factors, while external political pressure tends to reduce the likelihood of institutionalization of evaluation of forecast accuracy.© 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.