Premium
Time‐series Properties and Forecasts of Crude Steel Consumption in the UK
Author(s) -
EVANS M.,
WALTON S. B.
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-131x(199701)16:1<47::aid-for644>3.0.co;2-0
Subject(s) - outlier , series (stratigraphy) , consumption (sociology) , unit root , econometrics , time series , stochastic modelling , ex ante , unit root test , constant (computer programming) , economics , computer science , statistics , cointegration , mathematics , geology , macroeconomics , paleontology , social science , sociology , programming language
Abstract This paper makes use of simple graphical techniques, a seasonal unit root test and a structural time‐series model to obtain information on the time series properties of UK crude steel consumption. It shows that steel consumption has, after the removal of some quite substantial outliers, a fairly constant seasonal pattern, and a well‐defined but stochastic business cycle. The long‐run movement in steel consumption also appears to be stochastic in nature. These characteristics were used to identify a structural time‐series model and the ex‐post forecasts obtained from it performed reasonably well. Finally, this paper presents some ex‐ante quarterly forecasts for crude steel consumption to the year 1999. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.