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Semiparametric analysis of German East–West migration intentions: facts and theory
Author(s) -
Burda Michael C.,
Härdle Wolfgang,
Müller Marlene,
Werwatz Axel
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
journal of applied econometrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.878
H-Index - 99
eISSN - 1099-1255
pISSN - 0883-7252
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-1255(1998090)13:5<525::aid-jae508>3.0.co;2-c
Subject(s) - microdata (statistics) , econometrics , german , semiparametric model , economics , wage , parametric statistics , mathematics , generalized linear model , statistics , geography , nonparametric statistics , sociology , demography , labour economics , population , archaeology , census
East–West migration in Germany peaked at the beginning of the 1990s although the average wage gap between Eastern and Western Germany continues to average about 25%. We analyse the propensity to migrate using microdata from the German Socioeconomic Panel. Fitting a parametric Generalized Linear Model (GLM) yields non‐linear residual behavior. This finding is not compatible with classical Marshallian theory of migration and motivates the semiparametric analysis. We estimate a Generalized Partial Linear Model (GPLM) where some components of the index of explanatory variables enter non‐parametrically. We find the estimate of the non‐parametric influence in concordance with a number of alternative migration theories, including the recently proposed option‐value‐of‐waiting theory. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.