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ASSESSING NEW ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES USING AN ENERGY SYSTEM MODEL WITH ENDOGENIZED EXPERIENCE CURVES
Author(s) -
Mattsson Niclas,
Wene ClasOtto
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
international journal of energy research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.808
H-Index - 95
eISSN - 1099-114X
pISSN - 0363-907X
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-114x(19970325)21:4<385::aid-er275>3.0.co;2-1
Subject(s) - investment (military) , energy (signal processing) , photovoltaics , energy technology , competition (biology) , lock (firearm) , emerging technologies , energy system , environmental economics , risk analysis (engineering) , economics , computer science , engineering , simulation , renewable energy , business , photovoltaic system , electrical engineering , mechanical engineering , physics , ecology , quantum mechanics , artificial intelligence , politics , political science , law , biology
Most energy systems models treat reductions of technology investment costs exogenously. In these models, investments may be postponed until the costs become low. This model behaviour is unreasonable, since early investments are necessary to realize the cost reductions, a phenomenon known as the experience effect. We have developed a global energy systems model with endogenized experience curves, and have conducted a pilot study to demonstrate the new insights which can be obtained with the model. In this initial application, we study the emergence of new energy technologies such as photovoltaics and fuel cells, competition between technologies and technology lock‐in effects. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.