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Natural sampling and base‐rate neglect
Author(s) -
Betsch Tilmann,
Biel GlennMerten,
Eddelbüttel Claudia,
Mock Andreas
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
european journal of social psychology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.609
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1099-0992
pISSN - 0046-2772
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-0992(199803/04)28:2<269::aid-ejsp872>3.0.co;2-u
Subject(s) - neglect , base (topology) , psychology , sampling (signal processing) , natural (archaeology) , statistics , contingency , contingency table , presentation (obstetrics) , social psychology , econometrics , mathematics , epistemology , computer science , geography , medicine , mathematical analysis , philosophy , archaeology , filter (signal processing) , computer vision , radiology , psychiatry
Using an analogue of the lawyer‐and‐engineer item (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973), we compared conditions in which base rates were either presented as percentages (A), or frequencies (B), to conditions in which the natural sampling process was described additionally (C) or was directly experienced (D). We expected the likelihood of base‐rate utilization to increase as the presentation approaches the process of natural sampling. Accordingly, results showed that the contingency of judgments on base rates systematically increased across conditions A to D. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.