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A note on the control of HIV in prisons
Author(s) -
Gani J.
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
environmetrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.68
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1099-095X
pISSN - 1180-4009
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-095x(199911/12)10:6<677::aid-env383>3.0.co;2-o
Subject(s) - prison , markov chain , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , homogeneous , markov chain monte carlo , control (management) , needle sharing , econometrics , computer science , psychology , statistics , economics , mathematics , medicine , criminology , virology , artificial intelligence , monte carlo method , combinatorics , syphilis , condom
This note considers the spread of HIV in a single prison where there is a constant rate of departure and replacement of prisoners. Some of the incoming prisoners will be HIV+, and homogeneous mixing within the prison is assumed. HIV is thus spread sexually or by the sharing of intravenous drug users' needles. A deterministic continuous time prison model is examined, and the number of HIV+ infective prisoners at time t derived. A stochastic analogue of this model is constructed, in the form of a continuous Markov chain, and its embedded chain studied. Finally, a control procedure involving the screening of a proportion of the incoming prisoners, and the quarantining of the HIV+ individuals is proposed. Its consequences are derived for the deterministic model. The proportion to be screened, given a total expenditure for the screening procedure and the medical costs of quarantined and non‐quarantined infectives, can be calculated. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.