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Modelling the ozone depletion, UV radiation and skin cancer rates for Australia
Author(s) -
Koken P. J. M.,
Willems B. A. T.,
Vrieze O. J.,
Frick R. A.
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
environmetrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.68
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1099-095X
pISSN - 1180-4009
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-095x(199801/02)9:1<15::aid-env282>3.0.co;2-6
Subject(s) - ozone depletion , skin cancer , ozone layer , melanoma , incidence (geometry) , ozone , environmental science , population , ultraviolet radiation , atmospheric sciences , cancer incidence , cancer , demography , climatology , geography , meteorology , environmental health , medicine , cancer research , chemistry , geology , mathematics , geometry , sociology , radiochemistry
Australia has a very sunny climate, the majority of the inhabitants are of Caucasian origin, and the country is situated close to the Antarctic with its appearing ‘ozone hole’: thus the problem of ozone depletion is of great concern. The present article describes a model to estimate the future increase in melanoma and non‐melanoma skin cancer among the Australian population as a result of an increase in UV radiation, using four different scenarios for future stratospheric chlorine concentrations resulting in four different ozone depletion rates. For melanoma, enough data were available to calculate the increase in incidence rates for three different latitudinal zones within Australia, showing the differences between the zones with their diverse climate conditions. Two of the four scenarios show a continuing increase in both melanoma and non‐melanoma skin cancer incidences as a result of ozone depletion. Towards the end of the simulation period a negative trend in the incidence rates for the two other scenarios starts to show. Furthermore differences are found in the melanoma skin cancer incidences between the three zones specified. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.