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Comparison of GCM‐Simulated Daily Maximum Temperatures with Observations in South Moravia
Author(s) -
Kalvová Jaroslava,
Nemešová Ivana
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
environmetrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.68
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1099-095X
pISSN - 1180-4009
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-095x(199709/10)8:5<503::aid-env266>3.0.co;2-0
Subject(s) - autocorrelation , series (stratigraphy) , gcm transcription factors , climatology , statistic , statistics , mathematics , environmental science , variance (accounting) , general circulation model , climate change , geology , paleontology , oceanography , accounting , business
Three‐dimensional global circulation models (GCMs) are the ‘state of the art’ tools for projecting possible changes in climate. GCM simulations of the present climate have frequently been validated against observations in terms of time averaged variables, while time series, particularly daily series, have not been studied extensively. In this paper, 30‐year simulations of daily maximum grid point temperatures are compared with the 30‐year series recorded in Moravia. Attention is focused on annual cycles and autocorrelation functions. In estimating the autocorrelation coefficients, the standard procedure and jack‐knife method are applied to the series with and without seasonal decomposition. It is shown that the jack‐knife estimates of variance are generally smaller than those assessed by a standard technique for the series with seasonal cycle. However, if seasonal cycle is removed from the series, the jack‐knife estimates of variance may become larger. The t ‐statistic shows that differences in autocorrelation among the stations as well as among the grid points are not statistically significant while differences between the stations and grid points proved to be statistically significant. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.