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On a Stochastic Model for Moisture Budget in an Eulerian Atmospheric Column
Author(s) -
Freidlin Mark,
Pavlopoulos Harry
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
environmetrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.68
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1099-095X
pISSN - 1180-4009
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-095x(199709/10)8:5<425::aid-env262>3.0.co;2-7
Subject(s) - probability density function , mathematics , moisture , eulerian path , stochastic differential equation , goodness of fit , parametric statistics , stochastic modelling , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , statistics , meteorology , physics , lagrangian
Moisture contained in an Eulerian atmospheric column is modelled as a stochastic process obtained from gluing together two diffusion processes along the branches of a certain graph. The glued diffusions are solutions of two stochastic differential equations, each one governing the budget of moisture content during dry and wet epochs of the column, respectively. The model accounts for the intermittent behaviour of rainfall, via a hysteresis effect of moisture content between two fixed threshold values. Explicit probability density functions are obtained for the random duration of dry and wet epochs. The statistical method of maximum likelihood and the method of moments are used for estimation of the model's parameters, based on TOGA‐COARE measurements of rainfall in a certain tropical region. Testing goodness‐of‐fit is also performed for the parametric density estimates. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.