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Research report — Beguiled by Bayes: a re‐analysis of Mossman and Hart's estimates of malingering
Author(s) -
Rogers Richard,
Salekin Randall T.
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
behavioral sciences and the law
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.649
H-Index - 74
eISSN - 1099-0798
pISSN - 0735-3936
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-0798(199824)16:1<147::aid-bsl298>3.0.co;2-3
Subject(s) - malingering , bayes' theorem , psychology , psychiatry , econometrics , clinical psychology , statistics , mathematics , bayesian probability
Bayes' theorem has been successfully applied to clinical decision making in circumstances where the prevalence rate is both stable and well established. An attempt by Mossman and Hart (1996) to apply Bayes' theorem to malingering is critically examined. When marked fluctuations in the base rates of malingering (both within and across settings) are considered, this model appears to have little clinical utility. For the sake of illustration, Mossman and Hart data were reanalyzed, taking into account the pronounced variation in base rates. Within a 90% confidence level, the estimates of malingering for many scores extended the full range from 0% to 100%. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.