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Fifty–Fifty=50%?
Author(s) -
Fischhoff Baruch,
Bruine De Bruin Wändi
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
journal of behavioral decision making
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.136
H-Index - 76
eISSN - 1099-0771
pISSN - 0894-3257
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-0771(199906)12:2<149::aid-bdm314>3.0.co;2-j
Subject(s) - artifact (error) , feeling , scale (ratio) , psychology , econometrics , social psychology , economics , geography , cartography , neuroscience
Several recent surveys have asked respondents to estimate the probabilities of relatively unlikely events, such as dying from breast cancer and smoking. Examination of their response distributions reveals a seemingly inappropriate ‘blip’ at 50. The two studies reported here indicate that it reflects a response artifact associated with open‐ended probability scales. The blip vanishes when a response scale with explicit response options is offered. Apparently, the open‐ended format leads some people to use the 50% option as ‘fifty–fifty’, an expression of having no idea as to the answer. As a result, the accuracy of people's reported beliefs depends on the response scale used, as well as on how it evokes and channels such feelings of epistemic uncertainty. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.