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How are base‐rates used, when they are used: a comparison of additive and Bayesian models of base‐rate use
Author(s) -
Novemsky Nathan,
Kronzon Shirit
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
journal of behavioral decision making
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.136
H-Index - 76
eISSN - 1099-0771
pISSN - 0894-3257
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-0771(199903)12:1<55::aid-bdm306>3.0.co;2-m
Subject(s) - base (topology) , bayes' theorem , subject (documents) , knowledge base , bayesian probability , econometrics , computer science , psychology , statistics , artificial intelligence , mathematics , world wide web , mathematical analysis
Previous research has uncovered many conditions that encourage base‐rate use. The present research investigates how base‐rates are used when conditions are manipulated to encourage their use in the lawyer/engineer paradigm. To examine the functional form of the response to base‐rate, a factorial design was employed in which both base‐rate and the individuating information were varied within‐subject. We compared the performance of several models of base‐rate use, including a model that allows base‐rate and individuating information to be combined in a strictly additive fashion, and a model which presumes that respondents use Bayes' Rule in forming their judgments. Results from 1493 respondents showed that the additive model is a stronger predictor of base‐rate use than any other model considered, suggesting that the base‐rate and individuating information are processed independently in the lawyer/engineer paradigm. A possible mechanism for this finding is discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.