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Confidence and Uncertainty in Judgmental Forecasting: Differential Effects of Scenario Presentation
Author(s) -
KUHN KRISTINE M.,
SNIEZEK JANET A.
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
journal of behavioral decision making
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.136
H-Index - 76
eISSN - 1099-0771
pISSN - 0894-3257
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1099-0771(199612)9:4<231::aid-bdm240>3.0.co;2-l
Subject(s) - overconfidence effect , confidence interval , psychology , presentation (obstetrics) , cognition , econometrics , cognitive psychology , computer science , statistics , social psychology , economics , medicine , radiology , mathematics , neuroscience
Multiple scenario analysis is used by many organizations for long‐term planning, in part because the development of more than one scenario of the future is thought to prevent overconfidence in any one specific forecast. The present study attempts to clarify some of the questions concerning the cognitive effects of scenario presentation by distinguishing between confidence and subjective uncertainty. It examined the impact of different types of scenario information on confidence ratings, credible intervals, and features of forecast series. Subjects ( N =186) read either one, two, or no scenario(s) describing potential changes in the level of a stimulus variable, then made forecasts of that variable over the next fifty years. Reading any type of scenario information increased confidence in forecasts; there was no reduction in confidence due to presentation of multiple conflicting scenarios, compared to presentation of only one scenario. Differences in number and in type of scenarios presented did, however, affect subjective uncertainty.