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An expert system‐based approach to prediction of year‐to‐year climatic variations in the North Atlantic region
Author(s) -
Rodionov S.N.,
Martin J.H.
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(199907)19:9<951::aid-joc372>3.0.co;2-j
Subject(s) - climatology , expert system , scale (ratio) , computer science , meteorology , climate change , environmental science , climate system , artificial intelligence , geography , geology , cartography , oceanography
A novel approach to climate forecasting on an interannual time scale is described. The approach is based on concepts and techniques from artificial intelligence and expert systems. The suitability of this approach to climate diagnostics and forecasting problems and its advantages compared with conventional forecasting techniques are discussed. The article highlights some practical aspects of the development of climatic expert systems (CESs) and describes an implementation of such a system for the North Atlantic (CESNA). Particular attention is paid to the content of CESNA's knowledge base and those conditions that make climatic forecasts one to several years in advance possible. A detailed evaluation of the quality of the experimental real‐time forecasts made by CESNA for the winters of 1995–1996, 1996–1997 and 1997–1998 are presented. Copyright © 1999 Royal Meteorological Society