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SIGNATURES OF A UNIVERSAL SPECTRUM FOR ATMOSPHERIC INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN COADS SURFACE PRESSURE TIME SERIES
Author(s) -
SELVAM A. M.,
PETHKAR J. S.,
KULKARNI M. K.,
VIJAYAKUMAR R.
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(199604)16:4<393::aid-joc15>3.0.co;2-2
Subject(s) - predictability , climatology , surface pressure , environmental science , spectral density , self organized criticality , sea surface temperature , series (stratigraphy) , statistical physics , physics , meteorology , criticality , geology , mathematics , statistics , quantum mechanics , nuclear physics , paleontology
Annual and seasonal mean global surface pressure time series for the 25 years 1964–1988 obtained from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) were subjected to quasi‐continuous periodogram spectral analysis. Periodogram estimates are summarized in the following: (i) the atmospheric interannual variability exhibits a broadband (eddy continuum) structure; (ii) the spectra follow the universal inverse power‐law form of the statistical normal distribution; (ii) periodicities up to 5 years contribute to as much as 50 per cent of the total variance; (v) the high‐ and low‐frequency El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles of respective periodicities 3–4 years and 4–8 years and interdecadal oscillations are present in all the data sets. The inverse power‐law form for power spectra is ubiquitous to real‐world dynamical systems and is identified as a signature of self‐organized criticality or deterministic chaos. The above results are consistent with a recently developed cell dynamical system model for atmospheric flows, which predicts self‐organized criticali ty as intrinsic to quantum‐like mechanics governing atmospheric flow dynamics. Identification of self‐organized criticality in annual and seasonal mean surface pressure fluctuations and its unique quantification implies predictability of the total pattern of fluctuations. A universal spectrum for interannual variability rules out linear trends in atmospheric surface pressure patterns.