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A COMPARISON BETWEEN SPATIAL WINTER INDICES AND EXPENDITURE ON WINTER ROAD MAINTENANCE
Author(s) -
CORNFORD DAN,
THORNES JOHN E.
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(199603)16:3<339::aid-joc40>3.0.co;2-u
Subject(s) - environmental science , snow , kriging , climatology , geostatistics , physical geography , spatial variability , statistics , geography , meteorology , mathematics , geology
The relationship between winter road maintenance (WRM) expenditure and winter weather severity is examined for Scotland. Different approaches to calculating regional winter severity are compared (mean regional, Theissen polygon based, and kriging with external drift). Variables examined were mean winter maximum temperature, number of ground frosts, and number of days with snow lying at 09Z. These were also combined into a modified Hulme winter index (mHWI). A comparison of the regional winter severity with expenditure indicated that geostatistics produced the best estimates of regional winter severity. The geostatistical procedures are discussed and potential problems are highlighted. Cross‐validation revealed that using kriging with altitude as external drift estimated maximum temperatures well, however the other variables could be better estimated. Results of the analysis of expenditure and winter severity for Scotland indicate that winter severity is a plausible secondary variable when attempting to explain temporal differences in regional expenditure. The relationship between regional expenditure and winter severity across regions is less significant, but still useful. Regional expenditure responds very differently to changes in winter severity for each region, and base levels of expenditure also vary widely.