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Forecasting Transition of Personal Travel Behavior in a Sharing Economy: Evidence From Consumer Preferences of Travel Modes
Author(s) -
Park Stephen Youngjun,
Choi Hyunhong,
Boztuğ Yasemin,
Moon HyungBin
Publication year - 2025
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3255
Subject(s) - sharing economy , transition (genetics) , travel behavior , economics , consumer behaviour , microeconomics , advertising , business , computer science , biochemistry , chemistry , world wide web , gene
ABSTRACT The impacts of new mobility services on the market have led changes in consumer's travel behavior but also to various conflicts with the traditional transportation modes. Gaining social consensus, deriving policy and market strategies suitable for the different transportation modes is crucial. This study's objective is to make predictions about future transportation markets by examining consumers' preferences and choices regarding transportation mode. Specifically, this study employs the mixed multiple discrete‐continuous extreme value model to quantitatively identify consumers' attitudes towards various types of transportation modes. In addition to evaluating consumer preferences and usage choices of different transportation modes, the study examines the intricate relationship between transportation modes by using market simulations to forecast future transportation markets. The results show significant potential of shared mobility services in the transportation market and identify complementary effects between taxi and ride‐sharing services. It is expected that policy implications derived can contribute to sustainably developing the transportation sector.