Association of Jail Decarceration and Anticontagion Policies With COVID-19 Case Growth Rates in US Counties

Key Points Question Were jail decarceration and government implementation of anticontagion policies associated with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in US counties? Findings In this cohort study of 1605 counties in panel regression models, an estimated 80% reduction in US jail populations would have been associated with a 2% reduction in daily COVID-19 case growth rates, with considerably greater COVID-19 reductions in counties with above-median population density and above-median proportion of Black residents. In analyses of anticontagion policies, nursing home visitation bans were associated with a 7.3% reduction in COVID-19 growth rates, followed by school closures (4.3%), mask mandates (2.5%), and prison visitation bans (1.2%). Meaning The findings of this study suggest that anticontagion policies, including jail decarceration to minimize carceral outbreaks and their spillover to surrounding communities, appear to be necessary for epidemic control, public health, and mitigation of racial health disparities.