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It has been hypothesised that high-intensity fires prevent fire-dependent fynbos from being replaced by fire-avoiding subtropical thicket on dune landscapes of the Cape Floristic Region (CFR). Recent extensive fires provided an opportunity to test this hypothesis. We posit that (1) fire-related thicket shrub mortality would be size dependent, with smaller individuals suffering higher mortality than larger ones; and (2) that survival and resprouting vigour of thicket shrubs would be negatively correlated with fire severity. We assessed survival and resprouting vigour post-fire in relation to fire severity and pre-fire shrub size at two dune landscapes in the CFR. Fire severity was scored at the base of the shrub and categorised into four levels. Pre-fire size was quantified as an index of lignotuber diameter and stem count of each shrub. Resprouting vigour consisted of two variables; resprouting shoot count and resprouting canopy volume. A total of 29 species were surveyed. Post-fire survival of thicket was high (83–85%). We found that smaller shrubs did have a lower probability of post-fire survival than larger individuals but could detect no consistent relationship between shrub mortality and fire severity. Fire severity had a positive effect on resprouting shoot count but a variable effect on resprouting volume. Pre-fire size was positively related to survival and both measures of resprouting vigour. We conclude that thicket is resilient to high-severity fires but may be vulnerable to frequent fires. Prescribed high-intensity fires in dune landscapes are unlikely to reduce the extent of thicket and promote fynbos expansion.

Fire severity effects on resprouting of subtropical dune thicket of the Cape Floristic Region