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Background   P -curve has been proposed as a statistical test of evidential value. The distributions of sets of statistically significant  p -values are tested for skewness.  P -curves of true effects are right-skewed, with greater density at lower  p -values than higher  p -values. Analyses of null effects result in a flat or left-skewed distribution. The accuracy of  p -curve has not been tested using published research analyses of a null effect. We examined whether  p -curve accurately rejects a set of significant  p -values obtained for a nonexistent effect.    Methods  Homeopathic ultramolecular dilutions are medicinal preparations with active substances diluted beyond Avogadro’s number. Such dilute mixtures are unlikely to contain a single molecule of an active substance. We tested whether  p -curve accurately rejects the evidential value of significant results obtained in placebo-controlled clinical trials of homeopathic ultramolecular dilutions.    Results   P -curve accurately rejected the evidential value of significant results obtained in placebo-controlled clinical trials of ultramolecular dilutions. Robustness testing using alternate  p -values yielded similar results.    Conclusion  Our results suggest that  p -curve can accurately detect when sets of statistically significant results lack evidential value.

P-curve accurately rejects evidence for homeopathic ultramolecular dilutions