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Background.  The management of a child presenting with obesity in a primary care setting can be viewed as a multi-step behavioral process with many perceived and actual barriers for families and primary care providers. In order to achieve the goal of behavior change and, ultimately, clinically meaningful weight management outcomes in a child who is considered obese, all steps in this process should ideally be completed. We sought to review the evidence for completing each step, and to estimate the population effect of secondary prevention of childhood obesity in Canada.   Methods.  Data from the 2009/2010 Canadian Community Health Survey and from a review of the literature were used to estimate the probabilities for completion of each step. A flow chart based on these probabilities was used to determine the proportion of children with obesity that would undergo and achieve clinically meaningful weight management outcomes each year in Canada.   Results.  We estimated that the probability of a child in Canada who presents with obesity achieving clinically meaningful weight management outcomes through secondary prevention in primary care is around 0.6% per year, with a range from 0.01% to 7.2% per year. The lack of accessible and effective weight management programs appeared to be the most important bottleneck in the process.   Conclusions.  In order to make progress towards supporting effective pediatric obesity management, efforts should focus on population-based primary prevention and a systems approach to change our obesogenic society, alongside the allocation of resources toward weight management approaches that are comprehensively offered, equitably distributed and robustly evaluated.

Successful childhood obesity management in primary care in Canada: what are the odds?