Monitoramento de secas em municípios do Agreste Paraibano (Monitoring of droughts in municipalities of Agreste Paraibano)

Secas sao fenomenos naturais que ocorrem com frequencia no Semiarido do Brasil (SAB). Diante disso, objetivou-se monitorar as secas que ocorreram nos municipios paraibanos de Areia, Aroeiras, Bananeiras e Boa Vista. Os dados pluviometricos foram obtidos atraves da Agencia Executiva de Gestao das Aguas do Estado da Paraiba (AESA). O “Run Method” foi utilizado com o objetivo de identificar periodos de secas e avaliar suas caracteristicas, entre elas: duracao, deficit hidrico, intensidade, periodo de retorno e tendencia. Para analisar tendencia foram utilizados os testes estatisticos t-Student e Mann-Kendall. As secas mais graves, ou seja, aquelas que tiveram maiores duracoes, deficits hidricos e intensidades nesses municipios ocorreram durante os periodos de 1995-1999, 2012-2014, 2005-2006 e 2010. Da mesma forma, essas secas apresentaram os maiores periodos de retorno, isso significa que e baixa a probabilidade de outras secas com essa gravidade recorrer em curto prazo. Ainda foi possivel perceber que houve reducao na precipitacao media anual em Areia e Bananeiras e aumento em Aroeiras e Boa Vista para a serie estudada, mas essas tendencias nao foram significativas. Normal 0 false false false PT-BR X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabela normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ansi-language:PT-BR; mso-fareast-language:PT-BR;} A B S T R A C T Droughts are natural phenomena that occur frequently in the semiarid region of Brazil (SRB). The aim this work is monitor drought that occurred in the municipalities of the Paraiba: Areia, Aroeiras, Bananeiras and Boa Vista. The rainfall data were obtained through the Agencia Executiva for Gestao das Aguas (AESA) of Paraiba State. The ";Run Method"; was used in order to identify periods of drought and assess its characteristics, including: duration, intensity, water deficit, return period and trend. To analyze trends were used tests t-Student and Mann-Kendall. The more severe droughts, ie those who have had longer durations, water deficits and intensities in these counties occurred during periods of 1995-1999, 2012-2014, 2005-2006 and 2010. Similarly, these droughts had the longest return periods, that means it's low probability of other droughts with this gravity go back to occur in the short term. Can be realized that there was reduction in average rainfall annual Areia and Bananeiras and increase in the cities of Aroeiras and Boa Vista for the series studied, but these values were not significant. Keywords: duration; water deficit; intensity.