Modeling the risks of Ebola reemergence in Nigeria: Any lessons from outbreaks in Africa?

Ebola virus Disease EVD is deleterious to the health system, food security and social activities. However, here we highlight the risk and fiscal impact an outbreak can exert - economic cost (direct cost of clinical treatment, contact tracing and surveillance system) and repugnant cost on the citizens and foreign business partners. This paper reviews the indicator parameters (risk factors) that can lead to an EVD index case in Nigeria using probabilistic risk model, exponential and Beta-Poisson distribution model. It examines the negative impact of EVD in hardest hit countries during the 2014 West African outbreak, and the need for preemptive attention in Nigeria. Although this risk assessment process has limitation of exposure data with many assumptions, precautionary lessons are drawn from ecological, sociological and environmental drivers that lead to Ebola virus spill over and/or emergence in previously known outbreaks since 1976. Key words: Ebola virus, risk, probability, infection.