Estimation of extremes in the southern Arabian Gulf

Extreme all-direction wave conditions and joint probabilities of high waves and high water levels are derived at selected locations in the southern Arabian Gulf. The wave conditions are obtained using the spectral wave model SWAN with wind and offshore wave information procured from ocean weather, supplemented with local water level records. Wave transformations from offshore to nearshore and waves generated by local wind conditions are derived using wind speed and direction, offshore wave height, peak period and direction and water level inputs to the SWAN model. The model predicted extreme 3-hourly wind speeds for return periods ranging from 0.06 – 200 years and the wave conditions for each storm. The study indicates that future sea level rise to 2058 gives 1:50, 1:100 and 1:250 return period water levels of 2.64, 2.71 and 2.79 mCD respectively at Jebel Ali.   Key words: Joint probability, extreme water levels, extreme waves, return period, wave modelling.