Factors determining red meat trade to the Asian and African markets: Its implication to the Namibian red meat industry

The primary objective of this study is to identify alternative export markets for Namibian meat and meat products. This study applied the Extended Gravity Model to a cross-sectional dataset of global trade for fresh beef and frozen beef, as well as sheep and goat meat, based on 2009 trade data to identify key determinants of the above-mentioned products trade flows in a regional perspective. The variables used in this study include the impact of income, per capita income, distance, and exchange rates, as well as dummy variables, for regional blocs’ supply to the specific region or country partners. The results of this study have two significant policy implications for Namibia. Firstly, trade agreements – whether implemented unilaterally or bilaterally – will enhance potential trade flows between Namibia and other countries or regions. Equally, it is also important to protect and advocate productivity growth within the context of these trade arrangements. Secondly, GDP per capita was found to be positively related and significant in Southern and West Africa for fresh beef. Fresh beef was found significant in all cases, while goat and sheep meat was only significant in East Africa. The study revealed that a higher income per capita is a major indicator of potential export opportunity. Denser populated nations may have higher demand for protein commodities such as meat, but a higher population either increase or decrease trade, depending on GDP per capita. In Asian markets, per capita income was found to be significant at 1 % and highly elastic, making these markets attractive export destinations. As far as Namibia’s ability to compete with Oceania and North America is concerned, Namibia has a good opportunity to acquire a share of the Asian market.   Key words: Meat industry, extended gravity model, export destination.