Simulation of the impact of climate change on peanut yield in Senegal

This paper treats the impacts of climate change on peanut yield in Ziguinchor (Southwest of Senegal) during the near future (2021 to 2050) and the far future (2071 to 2100). The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model was run using daily weather data (maximum and minimum surface temperature, rainfall and solar radiation) of four (4) regional climate models (RCMs) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to assess the climate change impact on peanut yield. First of all, the DSSAT crop model is calibrated and validated for peanut using relevant observed data: peanut yield and meteorological data. Compared to the reference period (1976 to 2005), the RCMs exhibit some disparities in the projected rainfall during the near and the far future. The ensemble mean of the models (Ens/RCMs) predict a strong decrease of rainfall under the RCP4.5 scenario and a slight decrease under the RCP8.5 scenario during both periods. A gradual increase in mean temperature is predicted by all models. However, this increase is stronger for the RCP8.5 scenario. Analysis of the yield change during the near future shows a decrease for all RCMs except RACMO22T model under the two considered scenarios. During the far future, all RCMs predict a decrease of the peanut yield. Moreover, this decrease is stronger for the RCP8.5 scenario. These results indicated that the peanut crop could be negatively affected by the climate change and adaptation strategies are needed to protect this sector.   Key words: Climate change, Regional Climate Models, Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), peanut.