Gateway and hinterland dynamics: The case of the Southern African container seaport system

The Southern African container port system features a diverse range of different port types and sizes from five African countries. Collectively, ports in this region constituted a significant 40% market share of all container traffic through the African continent in 2005. One of the busiest container ports on the continent, the Port of Durban is located within the Southern African region. The region has seen strong port development in the last 15 years with new ports entering the market or existing ports expanding their supply. Competitive dynamics in the Southern African container port system are however not well researched. Building further upon economic literature and empirical studies on port competition, competitiveness and on port geography literature on the development of port systems, this paper provides an academically-sound and policy-relevant assessment of the development paths of the Southern African container port system. The paper includes a detailed container traffic analysis, applying the net shift model, for major container terminals in South Africa, Namibia, Mozambique, Madagascar and Mauritius from 1985 to 2010. The paper also discloses the level of concentration or deconcentration. Concentration/deconcentration factors applicable to the port system and its respective ranges are identified together with a port range developmental path (linear or non-linear) for each. As such, the paper complements earlier empirical research on European, North American and Asian port systems and thus contributes to advancing and broadening the methodological and empirical discussion on port system development.   Key words: Southern African container ports, Container traffic Analysis, Net Shift, Port Development Patterns.