A Probability Model for Occurrences of Large Forest Fires

Forest fires occur at various spots and various times all around the world. One of major efforts in forest fire management is to estimate the probability of occurrence of fires so that people would be better prepared to control those fires. In this paper, we establish a probability model and a numerical procedure for estimating probability of occurrences of large forest fires. A simulated numerical experiment is also presented to illustrate the application of the probability model and the numerical procedure.