Projected Climate Change and Impact on Bioclimatic Conditions in Central and South-Central Asia ICRAF East and Central Asia Research Report

Titles in the Working Paper Series aim to disseminate interim results on agroforestry research and practices and stimulate feedback from the scientific community. Other publication series from the World Agroforestry Centre include: Agroforestry Perspectives, Technical Manuals and Occasional Papers. Disclaimer and copyright The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the World Agroforestry Centre. Articles appearing in this publication may be quoted or reproduced without charge, provided the source is acknowledged. All images remain the sole property of their source and may not be used for any purpose without written permission of the source. Prof Dr Robert Zomer is a landscape ecologist, with a broad background in plant community, forest and agricultural ecology, and advanced skills in statistical analysis, geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing, environmental modelling, and landscape-level spatial analysis. He is currently Prof Dr Jianchu Xu is an internationally respected leading ethno-ecologist who works in coupled human environmental systems. His current research includes investigation of early warning signals of global change, trans-boundary water governance, landscape restoration, ecosystem services and their resilience, agriculture, and integrative conservation. Dr Xu leads the World Agroforestry Centre's East and Central Asia Regional Programme. Mr Mingcheng Wang has a geospatial modelling and remote sensing background, with advanced skills in multi-spectral and multi-resolution satellite remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), geospatial analysis, spatial analytical programming and map production, and spatial data analysis and statistics. Special interests include the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes, terrestrial ecosystems, biodiversity conservation, farming systems, and the spatial distribution of natural biodiversity, cropping systems and potentially useful agroforestry species. Abstract This report summarizes the current and future projected status of a set of bioclimatic indicators and the expected impacts of climate change on bioclimatic conditions in central and south-central Asia. It is intended to provide a basis for understanding the potential impacts of climate change across central and south-central Asia and a knowledge base for the design and implementation of agroforestry practices, environmental conservation efforts, and sustainable development. Under all scenarios, our spatial analysis indicates quick and drastic change in bioclimatic conditions in the near to medium term, and predicts significant and increasing biophysical and biological perturbation for biodiversity, ecosystems and ecosystem services, and agricultural and pastoral production systems. The major conclusion to be drawn from this report is the overriding necessity to recognize the now central role of a rapidly …