Modeling the potential distribution of three lichens of the Xanthoparmelia pulla group (Parmeliaceae, Ascomycota) in Central Europe

The paper presents models of potential geographical distribution of Xanthoparmelia delisei, X. loxodes, and X. verruculifera in Central Europe. The models were developed with MaxEnt (maximum entropy algorithm) based on 224 collection localities and bioclimatic variables. The applied method enabled to identify the areas where climatic conditions are the most suitable for modeled species outside their known localities. According to obtained model, high potential distribution of the X. delisei and X. loxodes was found in the northern and northeastern Poland, when areas most suitable for X. verruculifera were placed in the south, especially in the Carpathians. Model also suggests that potential distribution of X. delisei could be wider than known data on its occurrence and extend to Lithuania, Belarus and the Czech Republic. MaxEnt modeling of X. loxodes showed the widest potential distribution for this species in Central Europe with the best regions in Lithuania. Potential distribution in all models was strongly influenced by precipitation-related variables. All the modelled species prefer areas where precipitation in the coldest quarter is very low