Working life expectancies of aging Finnish workers in the municipal sector

We estimated the future duration that a worker of a given age would spend in different states of occupational health. We used data from questionnaire surveys of 6257 aging Finnish municipal workers in 1981, 1985, and 1992. Work ability was assessed by self-rated scoring. Complementary information was obtained from disability and mortality registers. We first estimated agespecific transition probabilities between different occupational health states. We then summed up the probabilities to calculate working life expectancies. We estimated that the remaining working life expectancy for a 49-year-old workers was 9 years for both men and women up to the statutory retirement age of 63 years. Transition from poor to good work ability increased working life expectancy of a 45-year person by 4 years for both genders. For all female and male cohorts aged 45 to 51 years in 1981, persons initially in a state of worse than average work ability left work force due to disability or death earlier than those with a better initial capacity for work. The study indicates that the work ability of aging Finnish workers deteriorates prematurely. This unfavorable upshot can lead to significant socioeconomic consequences for the society because of a looming labor force shortage that could undermine the sustainability of a welfare state.