Guidelines for modeling natural regeneration in boreal forests

Natural regeneration is recognized as an important component of forest management. Field studies are usually combined with conceptual and mathematical models as the most effective way to understand and predict natural regeneration. In the case of the boreal forest, several important issues arise in the design of regeneration models and are reviewed here. The most important concerns the trade-off between complexity and portability. Complex models may mimic natural systems more closely than do simpler models, but this realism comes at a cost in terms of the volume of data necessary for their calibration. A second issue is that most regeneration models have been scaled to problems at the tree and stand level, but recent interest in landscape-level issues requires models applicable to this higher spatial scale. Finally, the conceptual framework underlying most regeneration models may need to be revisited in light of recent efforts to depict vegetation dynamics under changing climatic regimes. It is unlikely that any single modeling approach will prove adequate for modeling natural regeneration under all conditions, and we provided guidelines as to how to create effective regeneration models. Key words: climate change, disturbance, ecological models, forest regeneration, seedlings