Future forests and indicator-species population models

In this paper, we provide an overview of a project that we initiated to explore the utility of spatially-explicit metapopulation models linked to dynamic landscape models as a way of incorporating biological indicators into sustainable forest management. We developed models for three indicator species as case studies; brown creeper (Certhis americana), redbacked vole (Clethrionomys gapperi) and red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) in a northern Ontario landscape. Results from the project to date suggest that there are significant advantages to models that are spatially-explicit and dynamic in their treatment of both populations and landscapes. Dynamic landscape metapopulation (DLMP) models allow a manager to track population change through time in response to a changing landscape and a fluctuating environment. These DLMP models may be used to predict the impact of current and alternative forest management strategies on population sizes of a suite of species chosen to indicate the health of forest ecosystems. Key words: biological indicators, population viability analysis, population modeling, dynamic landscape modeling, sustainable forest management, brown creeper, red-backed salamander, red-backed vole