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The Canadian softwood lumber industry is currently at a critical juncture in its development. Despite a global trend towards liberalized trade and the removal of trade restrictions, exporters of softwood lumber—one of Canada's most important economic sectors—find themselves embroiled in a contentious trade dispute once again. This paper has the overarching aim of stepping back from the details of current trade issues to provide a global context for protectionist actions, particularly Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs). Specifically, it draws parallels from the evolution of NTMs in the agricultural sector and provides an overview of some of the factors which lead to the implementation of NTMs in the lumber sector, including oversupply, process innovation, product innovation and recession. Based on this review, the paper offers a possible framework for the early detection of triggers that indicate the likelihood of importing regions sanctioning protectionist actions like NTMs. While this framework is only a starting point in mitigating the threat of protectionist trade measures, ultimately tools like this should be employed to maintain the long-term competitiveness of the Canadian softwood industry. Key words: Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs), trade, exports, softwood lumber, competitiveness, oversupply, process innovation, product innovation, technology, recession

Non-Tariff Measures: A global context for the changing international competitiveness of the Canadian softwood lumber industry