The economic impact of the 1998 ice storm on eastern Ontario woodlots: Case studies of red pine and white cedar

This paper reports estimates of the economic costs of the 1998 ice storm at the enterprise and regional levels for owners of red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) and white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.) woodlots. The results are based on alternative management regimes and response strategies and illustrates the broader issues currently discussed in forestry such as intensive silviculture and harvest practices. A partial capital budget approach was used to estimate representative per hectare losses for red pine and white cedar. Stochastic simulations and sensitivity analyses were used to examine the robustness of the estimates of economic damages. Per hectare losses for red pine ranged from $560 per hectare for minimal damage for a 25-year-old stand being managed under a target harvest regime to $13,236 per hectare for a 55-year-old stand subjected to severe damage and being managed under a Faustmann harvest regime. Total economic loss for red pine plantations is estimated to be between $21.2 and $32.5 million (1999 constant dollars) at the regional level. This estimate varies with the harvest regime being used. Per hectare losses for white cedar ranged from $307 per hectare for a 70-yearold stand suffering minimal damage and being harvested under a mean annual increment rule on site index 12 land to $1721 per hectare for a 70-year-old stand suffering severe damage and being managed under a mean annual increment rule on site index 10 land. The range of estimated aggregate losses for white cedar is larger than the range for red pine, extending from $3.56 million to $39.6 million with a mean estimate of $22 million (1999 constant dollars) for the mean annual increment harvest regime.