Mortalité du sapin baumier défolié par la tordeuse des bourgeons de l'épinette dans la région de la Gatineau au Québec

This paper presents a method of analysis which differentiates between spruce budworm caused mortality and regular mortality on balsam fir in the Gatineau region in Quebec. A first attempt was made using multiple linear regression and a uniform random number generator. In order to overcome the bias inherent to the least squares method when dealing with a binary (0,1) dependent variable, a profit analysis was also conducted. In this case, the parameters and their variance were estimated using likehood method. These two approaches proved to be equivalent when percent budworm caused mortality was compared within the 1958 to 1979 period covered by the data at hand, while the outbreak lasted from 1968 to 1975.In 1979, approximately 55% of the stems had been killed by the budworm, accounting for 53% of the volume. Maple-yellow birch associations were more affected than fir associations although no significant difference was found. Fir mortality was delayed by aerial spraying of insecticides but this advantage disappeared as soon as the spray operations came to an end.