Effects of climatic variability and human activity on runoff in the Loess Plateau of China

The Loess Plateau in north-central China has a long history of human activities. As a result of climate change, deforestation and sparse vegetative cover, the region suffers from water shortages and severe soil erosion, significantly influencing efforts for sustainable social development. In order to understand the impacts of climatic variability and human activities on runoff and other hydrological factors in this region, the Luoyugou catchment and its paired catchments (Qiaozidong and Qiaozixi) were selected. Statistical analysis indicated precipitation did not vary significantly whereas the annual runoff decreased from 1986 to 2008, with an abrupt change in 1994. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) increased slightly but not significantly. A comparison of runoff in the paired catchments showed land use changes reduced runoff by more than 38% under the same rainfall conditions. Human activities were the strongest contributor to changes in runoff and AET, at 67% and 90% respectively, while the remaining contributor was climate variation. The influence of various human activities on runoff is quite different, and soil-water conservation initiatives have a greater impact on runoff (about 41%). Thus, human activities were the primary reason for the reduction in runoff in the study catchment compared to climate. Greater emphasis should be given to afforestation and soil-water conservation measures.