Open AccessThe Impact of Renewable Energy Generation on the Spot Market Price in Germany: Ex-Post Analysis using Boosting Method
Author(s) -
Alexander Ryota Keeley,
Ken’ichi Matsumoto,
Kenta Tanaka,
Yogi Sugiawan,
Shunsuke Managi
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
the energy journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.244
H-Index - 77
eISSN - 1944-9089
pISSN - 0195-6574
DOI - 10.5547/01956574.42.s12.akee
Subject(s) - renewable energy , spot contract , spot market , wind power , market penetration , economics , electricity , electricity market , econometrics , environmental science , financial economics , engineering , electrical engineering , futures contract
This study combines regression analysis with machine learning analysis to study the merit order effect of renewable energy focusing on German market, the largest market in Europe with high renewable energy penetration. The results show that electricity from wind and solar sources reduced the spot market price by 9.64 €/MWh on average during the period from 2010 to 2017. Wind had a relatively stable impact across the day, ranging from 5.88 €/MWh to 8.04 €/MWh, while the solar energy impact varied greatly across different hours, ranging from 0.24 €/MWh to 11.78 €/MWh and having a stronger impact than wind during peak hours. The results also show characteristics of the interactions between renewable energy and spot market prices, including the slightly diminishing merit order effect of renewable energy at high generation volumes. Finally, a scenario-based analysis illustrates how different proportions of wind and solar energies affect the spot market price.
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