Is Abundant Natural Gas a Bridge to a Low-carbon Future or a Dead-end?

In recent decades, there has been a dramatic boom in natural gas production in the United States, spurred by the hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) technological innovation. Fuel switching away from coal (and to a lesser extent oil) to natural gas can reduce emissions from electricity generation due to the lower carbon content of natural gas, raising the possibility of natural gas as a “bridge” to a lower-carbon future. However, many have argued that while a large-scale transition to natural gas may reduce emissions in the short-run, it may increase emissions in the long-run by leading to lock-in of a low-cost emitting technology. This paper uses a large-scale energy-economic model of the United States—the National Energy Modeling System (Yale-NEMS or NEMS on a Yale server)—to assess the extent to which abundant natural gas affects greenhouse gas emissions, local air pollution, and welfare, and the effectiveness in reducing emissions relative to climate policy.