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In recent decades, there has been a dramatic boom in natural gas production in the United States, spurred by the hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) technological innovation. Fuel switching away from coal (and to a lesser extent oil) to natural gas can reduce emissions from electricity generation due to the lower carbon content of natural gas, raising the possibility of natural gas as a “bridge” to a lower-carbon future. However, many have argued that while a large-scale transition to natural gas may reduce emissions in the short-run, it may increase emissions in the long-run by leading to lock-in of a low-cost emitting technology. This paper uses a large-scale energy-economic model of the United States—the National Energy Modeling System (Yale-NEMS or NEMS on a Yale server)—to assess the extent to which abundant natural gas affects greenhouse gas emissions, local air pollution, and welfare, and the effectiveness in reducing emissions relative to climate policy.

Is Abundant Natural Gas a Bridge to a Low-carbon Future or a Dead-end?