Modeling Agroecosystem Services under Simulated Climate and Land-Use Changes

Ecological functioning of the intensive, homogeneous agroecosystems in the Chippewa River Watershed (CRW), MN, USA, can be improved by reducing soil erosion, runoff, and nutrient leaching. These ecosystem services can be achieved through increased perennials in crop rotations to diversify land use and sustain carbon sequestration. We calibrated, validated, and used APSIM software to simulate the effect of 100 yrs each of historical and future climate change scenario (IPCC-A2) on biophysical processes in representative soil types of the predominant farming systems in CRW. The interrelationships between crop rotations, soil types, climate variables, and ecosystem services indicated that not all objectives of sustainable agro-ecosystem are compatible, and tradeoffs among them are necessary. Site-specific and diversified crop rotations that comply with the environmental constraints of climate and soils could lead to more efficient implementation of strategies to improve ecosystem services in the watershed if current management practices of high external inputs and tillage persisted.