DESEMPENHO DA FÓRMULA DE MONTE ALEGRE (FMA) E DA FÓRMULA DE MONTE ALEGRE ALTERADA (FMA+) NO DISTRITO FLORESTAL DE MONTE ALEGRE

Performance of the Monte Alegre Formula (FMA) and Modified Monte Alegre Formula (FMA+) in the Monte Alegre Forest District .This research was developed in the Monte Alegre Forest District, located in Telemaco Borba county, Parana State, Brazil. The meteorological data used in the study was supplied by Klabin S.A., a major Brazilian forest company. Data on forest fire occurrences were collected from June 1998 to May 2003, totalizing 5 years of observation. The main objective of is research was to compare the performance of Monte Alegre Formula (FMA) and Modified Monte Alegre Formula (FMA+) in the fire danger prediction in the Monte Alegre Forest District. The performance of the indices were evaluated through the skill score method, based on a contingency table composed by the observed and the predict values for an event in a determined period of time. Null and Low fire danger classes were considered as indicative of no fire occurrence, whereas Medium, High, and Very High classes were considered as indicative of fire occurrence. Based on these premises the skill score and the success percentages of the indices were calculated. Results indicated a lower performance of the FMA compared to the FMA+ in the analyzed period