COMPORTAMENTO DO FOGO EM UM ANO CRÍTICO NAS UNIDADES DO INSTITUTO FLORESTAL DE SÃO PAULO

O estudo trata de avaliacao da reacao do fogo por meio de analise de regressao entre parâmetros representativos dos incendios assinalados nas unidades do Instituto Florestal de Sao Paulo durante um ano critico de incidencia de incendios, com o objetivo de propor modelos matematicos capazes de exprimir o comportamento do fogo. O ano de 1988 foi considerado um dos anos mais criticos quanto a incidencia de incendios florestais durante os ultimos cinquenta anos. A extensao em area queimada demonstrou constituir-se em variavel matematica dependente da duracao do incendio, refletindo melhor o comportamento do fogo nas unidades de producao que nas de conservacao. Ocorreu associacao entre duracao do incendio e umidade relativa do ar, segundo modelo polinomial logaritmico. Observou-se correspondencias funcionais entre area queimada e tempo de duracao do fogo com relacao ao numero de combatentes, atribuidas a severidade da estacao de fogo, consoante modelos polinomiais de segundo grau. THE FIRE BEHAVIOR IN A SEVERE WILDFIRE YEAR RECORDED IN SAO PAULO FORESTRY INSTITUTE STATIONS Abstract This paper presents fire behavior based on some regression analysis among parameters of wildfire occurrences during a severe wildfire year in Sao Paulo Forestry Institute network, Brazil. The 1988 entire year was a severe fire season during the last fifty years in Sao Paulo State, when was burned 1,085.42 hectares. The extension of the burned area was a mathematical dependent variable of duration of fire, expressing the closest behaviour since it was related to the forestry production units rather to the conservation ones, due to available resources. An association also occurred between duration of fire and air humidity, following a logarithmic-polynomial model. A mathematical correlation took place as well between the burned area and the firefighting personnel, supposedly in conection with the severity of that related fire season. A correlation have also occurred between the duration of fire and the firefighting personnel, according to a polynomial model, considering all the forest units that were working towards wildfire control that year.