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Real-time Forecasting of the 2014 Dengue Fever Season in Thailand
Author(s) -
Nicholas G Reich,
Krzysztof Sakrejda,
Stephen A. Lauer,
Derek A. T. Cummings,
Paphanij Suangtho,
Soawapak Hinjoy,
Sopon Iamsirithaworn,
Hannah Clapham,
Henrik Salje,
Justin Lessler
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
online journal of public health informatics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 1947-2579
DOI - 10.5210/ojphi.v7i1.5961
Subject(s) - dengue fever , infectious disease (medical specialty) , population , climate change , data science , geography , computer science , econometrics , disease , virology , medicine , environmental health , mathematics , biology , ecology , pathology
Real-time surveillance of an infectious disease in a third world country poses many problems that are not conventionally confronted by statistical researchers. As the first ones - to our knowledge - to attempt real-time forecasts of dengue fever in Thailand, we have faced these problems head-on in our quest to build a model that accurately predicts case counts in the presence of erratic reporting, shifting population dynamics, and potential climate change.

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